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TE fantasy projections: the most honest numbers on the board

Sunday Sidekick Research · August 12, 2026 · full-PPR scoring

If you want the projection most likely to simply come true, it belongs to a tight end. Across 1,442 measured weeks, TEs landed within ±3 points of their projection 42% of the time — the best of any skill position — with the lowest bust rate we measured (15%).

Projected	Weeks	Beat proj.	Within ±3	Lost 5+	Gained 10+	Median	Typical range (p10–p90)
3–9 pts	997	44%	45%	11%	6%	-0.8	-5.1 to +7.6
9–15 pts	414	45%	34%	25%	9%	-1.0	-7.2 to +9.5
15+ pts	31	29%	29%	32%	6%	-2.5	-9.2 to +5.8

The elite tier barely exists

Here is the number that reframes the position: of 1,442 tight end weeks, only 31 — about 2% — carried a projection of 15 or more. The projection market almost never even claims a tight end will have a wide receiver's day. And when it did, it ran hot: those rare 15+ projections finished a median of 2.5 points short and busted 32% of the time. A "set your lineup and forget it" elite TE week is mostly a thing we remember, not a thing that was projected.

The math of a 7-point tight end

The everyday case — a TE projected in the 3–9 band — is the best-behaved number in this entire research series: 45% of weeks land within ±3, only 11% lose 5 or more, and half of all outcomes sit between −3.3 and +3.4 of the number. What you see is very close to what you get.

What we do with this: treat tight end as a floor position and stop paying for last week. The position's boom rate (+10 or more) is 7% — the lowest we measured — so chasing the TE who just detonated is buying the least repeatable event in fantasy football at its price peak. If your tight end is projected 9+, you already own a top-shelf week; the data says expect the number, not the number plus fireworks.

Why the position behaves

Tight end projections are modest, and modest projections are earnable from short, repeatable work: quick outs, seam balls, red-zone visits. There is less "maybe" baked into a 6-point TE number than into a 16-point WR number, and the residuals show it. Honest inputs, honest outputs.

Methodology. A residual is a player's actual full-PPR score minus his pregame projection for that week. Sample: 1,442 scored TE player-weeks across the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons (9,254 player-weeks measured in total, all positions), grouped by the size of the projection. Weeks with a projection under 3 points are excluded as deep-bench noise. Projections are a well-known industry consensus feed; the measurement and analysis are ours. If you reference these numbers, please link to this page as the source.

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