PRO CONTENT · FREE

WR fantasy projections run too high — and the position pays in booms

Sunday Sidekick Research · August 12, 2026 · full-PPR scoring

Wide receiver is the only position where the projections have been systematically optimistic. Across 3,506 measured weeks, a WR beat his number just 39% of the time — and it gets worse as the projection gets bigger.

Projected	Weeks	Beat proj.	Within ±3	Lost 5+	Gained 10+	Median	Typical range (p10–p90)
3–9 pts	1,758	38%	42%	13%	6%	-1.5	-5.5 to +7.4
9–15 pts	1,285	41%	28%	33%	10%	-1.8	-9.0 to +9.9
15+ pts	463	39%	27%	38%	8%	-2.6	-11.5 to +8.8

The elite-WR haircut

WRs projected 15+ full-PPR points delivered, on average, 1.5 points less than projected — and the average flatters them. The median elite-WR week finished 2.6 points under, and 38% of these weeks — nearly two in five — came in 5+ points short. A WR projected at 16.0 has, half the time, scored 13.4 or fewer.

So why start them at all? The right tail.

Because the mean sits above the median, the distribution leans right: the position's value arrives in boom weeks, not steady ones. The typical elite-WR range runs from −11.5 to +8.8, and the 8–10% of weeks that clear +10 do the scoring that wins matchups. Receivers eat in bursts. A target either becomes 0.0 or 26.4, and no projection can split that difference honestly — so the midpoint disappoints most weeks and apologizes with the occasional detonation.

What we do with this: mentally shave a couple of points off any big WR projection when comparing across positions — the data says the market has been paying that premium and not receiving it. Then judge your receivers over a month, not a Sunday: two quiet weeks is not a slump, it is the literal shape of the distribution. Benching a boom-position player right before the boom is the oldest self-inflicted wound in fantasy football.

The small-projection WR is quietly fine

Down in the 3–9 band the position behaves: 42% of weeks land within ±3, busts are 13%, and the mean miss is a rounding error (−0.07). The optimism problem lives at the top, where target projections meet cornerbacks, game flow, and the fact that one dropped deep ball is a quarter of the projection. The bigger the WR number, the more of it is written in maybes.

Methodology. A residual is a player's actual full-PPR score minus his pregame projection for that week. Sample: 3,506 scored WR player-weeks across the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons (9,254 player-weeks measured in total, all positions), grouped by the size of the projection. Weeks with a projection under 3 points are excluded as deep-bench noise. Projections are a well-known industry consensus feed; the measurement and analysis are ours. If you reference these numbers, please link to this page as the source.

These numbers come to life on Sundays. Sunday Sidekick shows your players' points moving live, play by play, across every league you're in — free. Get the app.