Sunday Sidekick
How accurate are fantasy football projections? We measured 9,254 player-weeks.
Measured, not vibed. We scored 9,254 real player-weeks from the 2024 and 2025 seasons against their pregame full-PPR projections and kept the receipts. This series is what the data actually says about each position — hit rates, bust rates, the true width of a projection — with the arithmetic shown, free, no paywall.
Every position, one table
Share of weeks each position beat its projection, landed within ±3 points of it, lost 5+ from it, or gained 10+ on it — plus the median miss and the typical (10th–90th percentile) range.
| Position | Weeks | Beat proj. | Within ±3 | Lost 5+ | Gained 10+ | Median | Typical range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 1,094 | 50% | 31% | 25% | 10% | +0.0 | -9.2 to +10.0 |
| Running backs | 2,127 | 43% | 38% | 18% | 9% | -1.0 | -6.7 to +9.2 |
| Wide receivers | 3,506 | 39% | 35% | 24% | 8% | -1.7 | -7.6 to +8.8 |
| Tight ends | 1,442 | 44% | 42% | 15% | 7% | -0.9 | -5.8 to +8.4 |
The one-table story: no position beats its projection half the time, the median week lands under the number everywhere but QB, and the typical range is 15–20 points wide. The per-position breakdowns below show where projections are honest, where they run hot, and what to do about it.